Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4035
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4035 · TPA → MDW
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.58 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.