Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4035
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4035 · TPA → MDW
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.