Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4047 · TPA → SJU
departs 8:35 PM ET · arrives 11:40 PM AT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.