Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4047 · TPA → SJU
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM AT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.