Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4074
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4074 · ABQ → AUS
departs 10:30 PM MT · arrives 1:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at ABQ that day
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.