Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4074
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4074 · ABQ → AUS
departs 7:20 PM MT · arrives 10:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.