Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4089
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4089 · MDW → ORF
departs 7:00 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.