Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 410 · MEM → BNA
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
MEM usually runs smoothly
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.11 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.