Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 410 · MEM → BNA
departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 6:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.