Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 411 · AUS → TPA
departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 10%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.43 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.