Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 411 · AUS → TPA
departs 5:20 AM CT · arrives 8:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.