Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4126
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4126 · BWI → ISP
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at ISP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
ISP usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ISP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.