Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4148
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4148 · SAN → BWI
departs 2:10 PM PT · arrives 10:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 28%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.