Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4148
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4148 · SAN → BWI
departs 1:05 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.