Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4186 · SAN → SJC
departs 7:30 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 51%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.