Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4195
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4195 · DAL → DCA
departs 1:35 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.