Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4210
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4210 · SJC → AUS
departs 6:25 PM PT · arrives 11:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.