Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4210
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4210 · SJC → AUS
departs 7:25 PM PT · arrives 12:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.