Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4258
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4258 · DAL → PHX
departs 6:50 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.