Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4261 · SJC → SAN
departs 8:25 AM PT · arrives 9:50 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 19%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −23 pts in 24h
−23 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↓
8am departures from SJC are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.