Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4354
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4354 · ROC → BWI
departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from ROC are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.