Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4354
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4354 · ROC → BWI
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from ROC are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.