Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4380
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4380 · BNA → DCA
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 17%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 20%
Sat 10/10 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 53% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.