Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4383
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4383 · BWI → SRQ
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 10:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.