Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4383
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4383 · BWI → SRQ
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.