Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4383
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4383 · BWI → SRQ
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 10:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.