Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4441 · DEN → LGA
departs 11:15 AM MT · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 71%
Mon 10/5 39%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.