Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4505 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4505 · LAS → MCO

departs 12:10 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4505 · LAS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?