Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4516 · AUS → RDU
departs 9:15 AM CT · arrives 1:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
9am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.34 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.