Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4516 · AUS → RDU
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 1:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.