Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4552
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4552 · SAN → SMF
departs 3:00 PM PT · arrives 4:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.