Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4552
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4552 · SAN → SMF
departs 3:00 PM PT · arrives 4:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.