Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4562 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4562 · BNA → DCA

departs 11:15 AM CT · arrives 2:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4562 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?