Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4567
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4567 · BWI → MSY
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 40%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.