Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4569 · BWI → RSW
departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
RSW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.