Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4569 · BWI → RSW
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
RSW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.