Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4585 · JAX → DAL
departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 46%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
62%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
62%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.26 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.