Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4585 · JAX → DAL
departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.45 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.