Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4585 · JAX → DAL
departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 50%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.