Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4591
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4591 · MCO → IND
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 11:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 20%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.