Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4630 LANDED 11:57 PM MT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4630 · BNA → DEN

took off 10:41 PM CT · landed 11:57 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BNA that day

↑ 10pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4630 · BNA → DEN

Odds over time