Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4635
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4635 · DEN → TUL
departs 5:20 PM MT · arrives 7:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.