Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4719
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4719 · MCO → AUS
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.