Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4719
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4719 · MCO → AUS
departs 11:35 AM ET · arrives 1:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/1 51%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.