Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4719
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
WN 4719 · MCO → AUS
departs 1:25 PM ET · arrives 3:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.