Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4719
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4719 · MCO → AUS
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 9/30 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 1.00 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.