Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4745
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4745 · HOU → MEM
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.41 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.