Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4766
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4766 · OAK → PHX
departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 12:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at OAK that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.