Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4766
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4766 · OAK → PHX
departs 1:40 PM PT · arrives 3:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
OAK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.