Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 478 · BNA → CLT
departs 4:40 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 3%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.